Research report: Special Educational Needs & Employment Outcomes for Young People in Yorkshire (2017-2025)

1. Context, Scope, and Approach

This paper addresses the critical intersection of regional labour market stability and the effectiveness of support structures for young people transitioning into post-education life in the Yorkshire region. The request specifically sought localized time-series data mirroring the provided economic metrics for the thirteen Local Authorities (LAs) within Yorkshire: North Yorkshire, York, East Riding of Yorkshire, Hull, Leeds, Wakefield, Calderdale, Kirklees, Bradford, Sheffield, Barnsley, Doncaster, and Rotherham.

The scope of this report brings together LA economic performance indicators—including employment rates, unemployment volumes, and local economic volatility—from April 2017 to March 2025. This labour market baseline is then integrated with specialized outcome statistics for young people aged 16 to 25, focusing specifically on Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET) rates and the pressure created by the rapidly expanding cohort of young people requiring Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) provision, particularly those holding an Education, Health and Care (EHC) Plan.

The primary objective is to equip Strategic Commissioning Officers and Regional Policy Directors, particularly those engaged with combined authority structures such as the West Yorkshire Combined Authority, with the authoritative data necessary for strategic resource allocation, High Needs funding management, and targeted skills development initiatives. The methodology relies on juxtaposing local LA economic data with policy and outcome statistics sourced from government and academic research regarding SEND transition and the disability employment gap. The resulting analysis highlights systemic failures in transition pathways and provides an imperative for urgent, coordinated intervention.

2. Executive Summary: Key Findings and Strategic Imperatives

This report reveals a significant divergence in economic stability across Yorkshire, directly correlating with varied prospects for vulnerable young people. The overarching challenge lies in managing unprecedented demand for specialized support as a large cohort of young people with high needs transitions into a regionally fragmented and often volatile labour market.

2.1 Summary of Regional Economic Disparity

The analysis of employment rates between 2017 and 2023 demonstrates widening regional economic disparity within Yorkshire. LAs such as York and North Yorkshire display robust labour market performance, with York recording employment rate growth of up to 6.6 percentage points (%) in the analyzed period. Conversely, metropolitan areas, notably Rotherham and Calderdale, experienced a decline in employment rates, dropping by 2.7% and 2.5% respectively, indicating heightened vulnerability in their industrial base.

Furthermore, analysis of the Local Economic Indicator reveals high volatility in major metropolitan LAs such as Leeds, Rotherham and Sheffield. This fluctuation suggests a structural susceptibility to economic shocks, creating an unstable environment that disproportionately affects young workers and those requiring long-term, supportive job placements.

2.2 Scale of the Youth and Disability Challenge

Despite some regionally reported figures suggesting a better outcome, the overall context for youth employment remains strained. Yorkshire & The Humber’s overall youth NEET rate (5.3% as of December 2022) exceeds the national average (4.7%). This challenge is amplified for disabled young people; nationally, nearly three in ten young people (28.6%) aged 16-24 are classified as NEET, compared to only 7.1% of their non-disabled peers.

Concurrently, the demand for statutory support is creating unmanageable pressure on local resources. The number of young people with EHC Plans is rising sharply, evidenced by a 10.8% national increase between 2024 and 2025. Locally, North Yorkshire forecasts this growth trajectory will lead to a caseload of 7,863 plans by 2029, representing an acute increase in financial burden on High Needs budgets.

2.3 Strategic Imperatives

To address these dual challenges, immediate systemic improvements are required. Firstly, there is an urgent need to improve post-16 data tracking systems to accurately capture destinations, particularly addressing the high ‘NEET/Unknown’ rates prevalent in major LAs. Secondly, policy must mandate joint commissioning across Children’s Services, Adult Services, and welfare bodies (such as the Department for Work and Pensions, DWP) to deliberately bridge the critical support gaps identified during the transition into adulthood.

3. Regional Economic Baseline: Labour Market Dynamics in Yorkshire Local Authorities (2017-2025)

Understanding the labour market context of Yorkshire is paramount, as general economic stability dictates the pool of opportunities available to young people transitioning out of education. The period analyzed, 2017 to 2025, captures significant economic cycles, including the pre-pandemic peak, the sharp downturn, and the uneven recovery.

3.1 Comparative Analysis of Employment Rates

The employment rate data showcases a clear bifurcation in regional economic health. High-performing LAs, notably York and North Yorkshire, consistently maintain superior employment rates, reflecting strong local economic fundamentals and resilience. York, in particular, recorded an exceptionally high rate of 85.5% in the period spanning January 2022 to December 2022. These figures indicate robust labour demand and low structural unemployment, setting the regional high-water mark for potential labour market integration.

Conversely, areas like Bradford and Hull consistently report lower participation rates. Bradford’s employment rate typically sits near the 67% to 69% range, signalling persistent structural barriers to economic participation. The post-pandemic period introduced further fluctuation: while Leeds showed a minor decline of 0.5 % between 2017/18 and 2022/23, Rotherham and Calderdale registered concerning drops of 2.7 % and 2.5 %, respectively, over the same period. These declines suggest specific vulnerabilities within their industrial bases that impact overall employment capacity.

The performance disparity suggests the existence of a two-speed regional economy. Metropolitan LAs, characterized by complex and diverse industrial profiles, appear less resilient to economic shifts compared to more affluent, service-led areas like York and North Yorkshire, which better absorb labour during recovery. This means that young people requiring specialized or sustained support, such as those with complex needs, face greater competition and potentially fewer accessible, quality entry-level opportunities within the major urban centres where the need is often highest.

Local Authority	Employment Rate (Apr 2017-Mar 2018)	Employment Rate (Apr 2022-Mar 2023)	Change (%)
Sheffield	70.4%	71.8%	+1.4
Doncaster	72.7%	73.4%	+0.7
Rotherham	75.3%	72.6%	-2.7
Barnsley	70.8%	72.4%	+1.6
Leeds	76.9%	76.4%	-0.5
Wakefield	74.1%	74.9%	+0.8
Bradford	68.1%	69.3%	+1.2
Kirklees	69.3%	70.9%	+1.6
Calderdale	76.5%	74.0%	-2.5
York	77.0%	83.6%	+6.6
North Yorkshire	77.8%	80.1%	+2.3
East Riding	76.3%	77.6%	+1.3
Hull	70.9%	71.5%	+0.6

Table 1: Yorkshire Local Authority Employment Rates: Baseline (2017/18) vs. Latest (2022/23)

3.2 Unemployment Volumes and Trends

Absolute unemployment volume data highlights the scale of the challenge in major population centres. Leeds and Sheffield consistently report the highest numbers of unemployed individuals. In the baseline period of April 2017–March 2018, Leeds recorded 19,500 unemployed individuals, and Sheffield 16,500.

The pandemic caused unemployment volumes to peak across most LAs, with Leeds reaching 23,000 unemployed in the period October 2020–September 2021. Although volumes have generally decreased since the height of the disruption, the major metropolitan centres continue to account for the majority of the region’s jobless total. As of the latest analyzed period, April 2023–March 2024, Leeds (16,400) and Sheffield (11,800) still hold the largest regional unemployment volumes.

3.3 Analysis of the Local Economic Indicator Volatility

The economic indicator data reveals significant structural instability in certain local economies, measured by the range of fluctuation across the 2017–2025 period. The highest volatility is observed in Leeds and Rotherham, which display ranges exceeding 12 percentage points (Leeds 13.6 %; Rotherham 12.5 %). Sheffield also demonstrated high instability, with a range of 10.4 percentage points.

This extreme volatility in the economic indicator, paired with persistently high absolute unemployment numbers in these key metropolitan hubs, translates directly into increased transitional risk for young people with SEND. In markets prone to rapid shifts and structural changes, employers often prioritize flexibility and short-term staffing solutions. This makes securing sustained, quality employment and the supportive commitments necessary for successful supported internships or job coaching highly difficult. Consequently, economic instability acts as a profound structural barrier to integrating young people with high needs into the workforce.

Local Authority	Lowest Recorded Economic indicator %	Highest Recorded Economic indicator %	Range (%)
North Yorkshire	18.1 (Jul 18–Jun 19)	21.8 (Jul 19–Jun 20)	3.7
York	13.5 (Jan 22–Dec 22)	21.1 (Oct 23–Sep 24)	7.6
East Riding of Yorkshire	17.5 (Apr 24–Mar 25)	23.3 (Jul 23–Jun 24)	5.8
Hull	20.1 (Jul 19–Jun 20)	29.3 (Apr 23–Mar 24)	9.2
Leeds	16.287 (Jan 20–Dec 20)	29.931 (Oct 23–Sep 24)	13.6
Wakefield	19.948 (Apr 17–Mar 18)	26.2 (Jan 24–Dec 24)	6.25
Calderdale	20.158 (Jul 17–Jun 18)	28.175 (Jan 24–Dec 24)	8.02
Kirklees	23.3 (Jul 23–Jun 24)	26.8 (Apr 17–Mar 18)	3.5
Bradford	23.2 (Apr 21–Mar 22)	31.8 (Oct 17–Sep 18)	8.6
Sheffield	17.8 (Apr 21–Mar 22)	28.2 (Oct 23–Sep 24)	10.4
Barnsley	22.6 (Jan 19–Dec 19)	28.1 (Jul 21–Jun 22)	5.5
Doncaster	73.8 (multiple dates)	80.2 (Jul 23–Jun 24)	6.4
Rotherham	19.3 (Apr 20–Mar 21)	31.8 (Jul 23–Jun 24)	12.5

Table 2: Volatility in the Local Authority Economic Indicator (Economic indicator ) Percentage Range (2017–2025)

4. The Crisis of Transition: Outcomes for Young People (16-25)

The analysis now shifts to the specific outcome metrics for young people in the region, highlighting that systemic support failures are leading to predictable labour market exclusion for those with disabilities and complex needs.

4.1 Regional NEET Rates and Benchmarking

Overall youth labour market participation in the region lags the national average. Yorkshire and The Humber recorded an overall NEET rate of 5.3% as of December 2022, which is marginally higher than the 4.7% rate for England as a whole. Within the region, Local Authority rates vary, with Bradford having the highest recorded NEET rate at 2.9%. Crucially, Leeds recorded the highest rate when NEET status was combined with ‘Unknown’ destination, reaching 7.8%.

Specific regional data for young people with SEND appears deceptively positive, with the Yorkshire & The Humber NEET rate for this cohort reported at 9.7% in 2024, slightly below the England average of 11%. However, this reported relative success must be evaluated critically, especially when weighed against the national evidence and local data integrity issues. The elevated rate of ‘Unknown’ destinations in major LAs, such as Leeds’ 7.8% combined NEET/Unknown rate , suggests a significant failure in post-16 tracking systems. Since young people with complex needs often disengage post-16 and are the hardest cohort to track, a substantial proportion of these ‘Unknowns’ are highly likely to be economically inactive, thereby masking the true severity of the NEET crisis for this vulnerable group in the region.

4.2 The Disability Employment and NEET Gap

National data provides the essential context for the regional crisis facing disabled young people. Evidence from the Trades Union Congress (TUC) analysis of Office for National Statistics (ONS) data confirms a fundamental structural failure in transition pathways across the UK: almost three in ten (28.6%) disabled young people aged 16-24 are NEET, compared to only 7.1% of their non-disabled peers. This gap represents a vast pool of untapped potential and a major social challenge.

When analyzing regional adult outcomes, the evidence further confirms persistent barriers. In Yorkshire and the Humber, only 6.3% of adults with a learning disability known to their local authority are in paid employment, lagging behind the top-performing regions like London (7%). This demonstrates that the failures in post-16 transition translate into lifelong economic exclusion. Furthermore, the consequence of economic disengagement is severe: being NEET, even for a short duration, results in a “scarring” effect, impacting projected future earnings, leading to lower job security, and contributing to poor physical and mental health outcomes. Mitigation of these long-term economic and social costs necessitates policy prioritizing robust, early intervention.

Metric	Yorkshire & The Humber	England/UK Average	Period
Overall Youth NEET Rate	5.3%	4.7% (England)	Dec 2022
NEET Rate for Young people with SEND	9.7%	11.0% (England Average)	2024
Disabled Youth NEET Rate (16-24)	N/A (Regional data unavailable)	28.6% (UK)	2025 (TUC analysis)
Adults with Learning Disabilities in Paid Employment	6.3%	N/A (Lagging London 7.0%)	2020
LA Highest NEET/Unknown Combined (Leeds)	7.8%	N/A	N/A

Table 3: Key Regional NEET and Disability Employment Metrics

4.3 Policy Responses and Interventions

Local authorities have initiated targeted interventions to address these challenges. Sheffield City Council, for instance, is actively scaling up its supported internships scheme, which provides a year of unpaid work-based learning designed to facilitate employment entry for young people with EHC Plans. The scheme is planned to increase from 56 places to over 80 by 2025/26, reflecting a demonstrable commitment to this pathway. Sheffield reports positive results, with participation rates for young people with additional needs exceeding both the national average and their statistical neighbours (59.5% versus 54.2% respectively). Such models provide a blueprint for regional expansion.

This local action aligns with the broader policy context established by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), which stresses the imperative to close the disability employment gap and manage rising ill-health related economic inactivity.

5. The Increasing Demand on SEND Provision (EHCP Analysis)

The structural pressures on Local Authority budgets and commissioning capacity, driven by the rise in statutory EHC Plans, constitute the foundational challenge in securing positive transition outcomes.

5.1 EHCP Caseload Growth: Scale and Pace

The number of children and young people (CYP) with EHC Plans maintained by LAs in Yorkshire is expanding at a rate that tracks, and sometimes exceeds, national trends. East Riding of Yorkshire Council reported a 13% increase in plans between January 2018 and January 2019, slightly higher than the 11% national increase for that period. More recently, the national caseload increased by 10.8% between January 2024 and January 2025, reaching 638,700 active plans.

This growth trajectory is expected to continue structurally, placing unsustainable pressure on the High Needs Block. North Yorkshire Council forecasts its EHC plan caseload will rise from 5,492 in 2025 to 7,863 by 2029. This 43% projected increase over four years demonstrates the critical fiscal challenge facing all regional LAs. While some LAs, like Leeds, report a lower prevalence of EHCPs (2.8% of pupils in Leeds schools have an EHCP, lower than England) , they may have a high-risk group transitioning post-16, indicated by a high rate of pupils on SEN Support (15.6% in Leeds, higher than England).

The current EHCP data indicates a crucial mismatch in strategic planning. The majority of the existing 638,700 EHC Plans nationally are held by children of compulsory school age (5-15). The current surge in new plans means a large cohort of young people with complex needs is rapidly approaching the 16-25 phase, intersecting with an established recognition that longer-term planning of post-16 High Needs provision is often lacking. Furthermore, only 6.5% of new EHC plans issued during 2024 were for young people aged 16 and over. If the overwhelming focus and capital investment (High Needs Provision Capital Allocation ) remain skewed toward primary and secondary provision, the capacity and complexity requirements of the older cohort (specialized Further Education, Special Post-16 Institutions, supported work placements) will be severely underestimated, risking inadequate provision at the point of greatest vulnerability.

5.2 EHCP Timeliness and Quality of Provision

The effectiveness of the SEND system is also compromised by failures in statutory compliance and provision sufficiency. The statutory deadline for finalizing and issuing an EHC Plan is 20 weeks. Even in 2023, Bradford issued only 71.4% of new EHCPs within this statutory timeframe, meaning nearly 30% of young people or their families faced significant delays in accessing entitled support.

Regarding provision sufficiency, the lack of historically accurate data poses a considerable problem for regional planning. The Department for Education (DfE) only recently began collecting data on special school capacity, acknowledging previous data was approximate. This deficiency impedes regional commissioning effectiveness. The geographical challenges are demonstrated by Hull, which is a “net importer” of pupils accessing its special schools from neighbouring local authorities, suggesting cross-boundary sufficiency shortfalls.

6. Barriers to Meaningful Employment and Independence for Young People with SEND

The high national NEET rate for disabled young people (28.6% ) is the manifestation of deep, systemic failures in the transition support infrastructure that impact Yorkshire LAs.

6.1 Systemic Transition Gaps and Service Fragmentation

Research highlights that the transition support system is fundamentally complex and difficult for families to navigate. The most critical failures are the “major gaps” that emerge as young people move into adulthood, particularly the fragmentation between children’s services and adults’ services. This support discontinuity is compounded by a generalized lack of specialist SEND support within FE colleges.

Effective transition requires robust, relationship-based, and timely support. However, young people with SEND consistently lack meaningful support for core life skills necessary for independence, including practical living skills, securing and maintaining appropriate work, and finding suitable housing. The challenge is particularly acute for young people with Learning Disabilities and/or Autism (LDA), where multiple studies confirm that specialized provision and highly coordinated multi-stakeholder input are necessary to improve poor employment outcomes.

6.2 Financial and Logistical Barriers

Policy decisions concerning finance and logistics often act as unnecessary barriers to participation. For instance, North Yorkshire Council policy requires post-16 learners with EHC Plans to pay a contribution towards transport costs, although this fee is reduced for those from low-income families. While LAs must manage fiscal pressures, imposing cost-sharing for a statutory obligation risks prioritizing budget relief over maximizing educational participation and independence for a vulnerable group.

Further exacerbating the challenges is the finding that families frequently lack awareness of their rights and welfare entitlements, which complicates the navigation of the complex system during transition.

The analysis of ceased EHC Plans reveals a critical tension between statutory rights and fiscal reality. The vast majority of ceased EHC Plans in North Yorkshire are for those aged 16 or older. When combined with the high financial pressure on High Needs budgets , there is an inherent fiscal incentive for LAs to prematurely discontinue plans to alleviate costs. This shifts the support burden away from education budgets and onto health and welfare systems, frequently resulting in young people entering the long-term economic inactivity category and bearing the full “scarring” effect of the initial exclusion.

7. Conclusion and Recommendations

The data confirms that Yorkshire is contending with two interconnected crises: 1) a fragmented and increasingly volatile regional labour market and 2) a structurally deficient post-16 transition pathway for young people with SEND. While affluent areas show high employment, the metropolitan centres face volatility and high absolute unemployment, increasing the risk for vulnerable cohorts. The massive surge in EHC Plan numbers is converging with systemic failures in data tracking and service continuity, threatening to create an unprecedented wave of economically inactive adults. To address this challenge comprehensively, a multi-layered strategic response focused on data integrity, systemic reform, and long-term fiscal prudence is required.

7.1 Strategic Reform of Data and Tracking

Accurate destination data is essential for effective commissioning. The current prevalence of the ‘Unknown’ category in outcome tracking undermines policy confidence and masks the true scale of inactivity.

Recommendation 7.1.1: Mandate Longitudinal Destination Tracking: Local Authorities and the Combined Authorities must implement mandatory, DWP-aligned longitudinal tracking for all young people leaving SEN support or EHC Plans at key transition ages (18, 21, and 25). Tracking must focus on sustained employment, defined by retention periods, rather than just initial destination, to eliminate the obfuscation caused by the ‘Unknown’ category.
Recommendation 7.1.2: Regional Data Dashboard: A standardized, regional Labour Market and Outcomes Dashboard should be established. This dashboard must pool detailed LA economic time-series data alongside detailed NEET and EHCP metrics to provide immediate, comparable performance indicators across all 13 Local Authorities.

7.2 Reforming the Post-16 Pathway

Service fragmentation must be addressed through mandatory, coordinated commissioning structures that reflect the lifespan of an EHC Plan.

Recommendation 7.2.1: Joint Commissioning Mandate: Children’s Services, Adult Social Care, and FE/Skills funding bodies, including Combined Authorities, must be required to jointly commission and fund transition support services. This structure must ensure a continuous, relationship-based support pathway from age 14 through to 25 to actively bridge the “major gaps” identified between services.
Recommendation 7.2.2: Scale Supported Internships: Capital investment, potentially sourced from the High Needs Provision Capital Allocation (HNPCA) , should be directed towards rapidly scaling proven employment models such as the supported internships implemented in Sheffield. These programs must be strategically linked to employment opportunities within stable, resilient sectors (e.g., health, social care, public administration) to maximize job retention despite regional economic volatility.
Recommendation 7.2.3: Eliminate Transition Barriers: To align policy with the goal of maximizing educational participation, LAs should be fiscally supported or mandated to abolish or fully subsidize transport contributions for young people with EHC Plans attending post-16 provision across the region.

7.3 Mitigating Future Fiscal and Social Costs

The current structural growth in EHCP demand requires long-term fiscal planning that recognizes the savings generated by successful transitions.

Recommendation 7.3.1: Long-Term Fiscal Modelling: Utilize EHCP growth forecasts, such as North Yorkshire’s projection of 7,863 plans by 2029 , to conduct rigorous modelling of the lifetime fiscal costs associated with economic inactivity for this cohort. This modelling will demonstrate that strategic, upfront investment in high-quality transition support (specialized FE, Special Post-16 Institutions, high-fidelity job coaching) yields greater long-term fiscal savings compared to relying on managing resultant welfare reliance and adult social care costs.

Recommendation 7.3.2: Prioritizing LDA Outcomes: Establish specific, measurable regional targets for increasing the proportion of young people with Learning Disabilities and/or Autism (LDA) in paid employment. The regional rate of 6.3% must be substantially improved through dedicated, specialist provision and mandatory employer training aimed at fostering truly inclusive workplaces.